ThreeBearsBalanced11Feb2018_UseEvenSmaller-Edited
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tentative_conclusions
[long_equity_returns] [tentative_conclusions]

So, has DVR “worked”? Well, yes, but far more for UK than for US. Given that off-market asset values have, traditionally, only been used in UK, that is neither surprising nor especially concerning. Looking at what I have called UK equity efficiency over periods of 15 years, the average (standard deviation) was a pretty good 0.75 (0.28). More important, although not the original target, it did lead me to look at expected equity returns and the extent to which the discounting process is not helpful for long-term funding exercises.