ThreeBearsBalanced11Feb2018_UseEvenSmaller-Edited
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executive_summary
[long_equity_returns] [executive_summary]

Looking again across the various papers, these are the essentials.

The future is unknown so that assumptions are needed.
Any investment strategy bears associated risks.
Seven risks are briefly classified.
How can trustees balance return against risk?
Pension trustees have very long timeframe (in former times).
Trustees not unduly constrained by short-term results.
Trustees must monitor what delegated managers are doing.
Virtually all investment performance has been MV-based.
Relying on MV can give wrong long-term message.
It is worth trying to dampen unrealistic expectations.
US definition (price volatility) is irrelevant to trustees.
Trustees need to know what risk-adjusted returns are.
Split MVR “between “sustainable” and “froth”?
DVR is a useful tool for identifying “froth”.
It is better to be “broadly right” than “precisely wrong”.

The 7 risks have been called default, dividend, inflation, market, currency, other markets and over-optimism.